Friday 17 January 2020

20/20 Vision: A New Year Resolution For Every NBA Team! Part II: The West!

Image result for resolutions         I started this blog last week and covered my new year's resolution for the Eastern Conference, I'm going to pick up where I left off and cover the West in this edition. If you enjoyed the last blog, it should be plenty more of the same!

Dallas Mavericks - Dallas has been one of the bigger surprises of the league this season as they sit 6th in the Western conference currently. The rise of Dallas into one of the competitors in the West is no coincidence, it clearly coincides with the rise of Luka Doncic as one of the leagues top handful of players. Luka more than has the stats to back up my claim (29ppg, 9.7rpg, 9.0 apg!). Doncic is on the shortlist for MVP candidates and his chances increase with every move up the Western Conference table the Mavs may take. The Mavericks are one of the top offensive teams in league with a top efficiency rating, much of that is a testament to Doncic's otherworldly play-making skills. Porzingas continues to shake off his two year hiatus,rattling off the rust and learning to trust his body again. That said, the Mavericks are still a player, or two away from becoming a legit title threat. With Dwight Powell starting at center and Dorian Finney Smith logging heavy minutes on the wing, the Mavericks should resolve to upgrade one of those players for something above average, possibly improving their depth at the position at the same time. Unfortunately, the Mavs don't have a lot of assets to make a move of significance. Are Kleber, Brunson or Curry of interest to anyone? I'd consider trading a future first round draft pick as it appears they'll be late in the round picks as long as Luka Doncic is leading the Mavs, they just have to decide, how soon is now?


Denver Nuggets - The Nuggets continue to be one of the more consistent teams in the West over the past few years. Led by the pick and roll action of their star center Nikola Jokic, and the still improving young guard Jamal Murray, the Nuggets have rolled to a 3rd place standing in a very competitive top half of the Western conference. The Nuggets have a deep roster and play their best at home in the mile high altitude of the Pepsi Center. After a slow start to the season it seems Jokic, an MVP candidate last season, has played his way into shape and has Denver looking as formidable as ever. Thankfully, after a bit of a letdown last season, Will Barton has returned to the form he showed in 2018. This allows Barton to take on the scoring load at times when Jokic's team first style of play has him being differential to nearly a fault. With Barton, Murray and Millsap all capable of taking on the scoring load at different times, the Nuggets can be a hard team to game plan for. That said, depth is terrific for the long grind of the regular season, but it's less of an advantage in the shorter rotations of the playoffs. The Nuggets could upgrade at the shooting guard where Gary Harris seems to have plateaued and hasn't shot the ball nearly as well this season. Players like Beasley, Morris, Grant, Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr. would likely all be considered assets the Nuggets could move along with Harris. I would resolve to get a defensive type of wing shooter like Robert Covington if I were the Nuggets brass. Though I have a feeling Michael Porter Jr. might already be emerging as that player from within! Get that guy more minutes!


Golden State Warriors - My how the mighty have fallen, after closing out the previous decade as the most dominant team in professional sports, the Golden State Warriors were expected to face some adversity this season. However, no one could have anticipated this precipitous of a drop off.  That said, it's all easy to rationalize. They lost KD to his restless wandering in free agency, and Klay was always going to be sidelined with his ACL tear. However, it's been a significant injury to heart and soul of the team, Steph Curry that has left the Warriors as a bottom dweller heading into the meaningful months of the season. Key free agent signing D'Angelo Russell and veteran Draymond Green have also missed time with injuries making it a lost season for the once mighty Warriors. Lineups that once looked like an all star team, have looked more like a G-League lineup at times this season. With all this turmoil the Warriors have yet to set what a Curry and Russell backcourt might look like. I would resolve to get Steph back to health to at least get a sense of whether Steph and Russell can work into the coming seasons or if Russell is merely a trade chip when the splash brothers return to form in 2021.

Image result for westbrook open 3Houston Rockets - Sometimes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. The Houston Harden's continue to be one of the stronger teams in the West. Of course, James Harden continues to be the number one reason for their success. That said, the off season shake up of sending Chris Paul to Oklahoma City in return for Chris Paul hasn't had the effect the Rockets were likely hoping for. (Unless it's a playoff health thing, in which case it's too early to say.) Sure Westbrook can still put up the occasional jaw dropping stat line, but if you watch the team play, it's noticeable how much teams feel they can leave Westbrook to double Harden. A tactic opponents could never do with Paul on the court. Westbrook is often left with ego challenging space from the perimeter where he can't help but hoist, regardless of how inefficient the analytics suggest he may be. That is one thing about Westbrook I don't fully understand, he has to be hearing about how inefficient he is from there, and yet he launches 5 threes per game (23%). I'd sooner just have him attack the rim in every one of those instances. Surely he would draw a crowd at the rim and if he can't finish, he's an adept enough passer to get a shot for his teammates. Yet, he settles. All of me wants to take the irrational stance that the Rockets should resolve to get Westbrook to stop shooting 3's. Maybe stop altogether is a bridge too far, but certainly they should have a better way (systematically) of using his strengths when his man is sent to double Harden, which is going to undoubtedly happen throughout the playoffs!

Image result for los angeles clippersLos Angeles Clippers - The Clippers continue to round into form following Paul George's late start to the season. With one of the best closing lineups in basketball the Clippers can play a number of different line ups depending on the match-up and situation. With nearly 4 players averaging over 20ppg the Clippers ceiling is definitely among the league's best. Kawhi can still turn it up an extra gear, as we saw during last season's NBA playoffs, and again in the Christmas day marquee game with the cross town rival Lakers. Paul George is the ultimate wing man, an over qualified second banana. Lou Williams is still an x factor, who can prey on 2nd units better than nearly anyone. We can already assume he'll pull a victory from the jaws of defeat in winning time come May and June. Montrezl Harrell continues to develop his offense, proving himself to be more than just a hustle and effort guy. While that's all well an good, the Clippers could still stand to improve their depth and even upgrade at the center position. If I asked which Clipper leads the team in starts this season, you wouldn't likely think of Ivica Zubac first, but that is the case. Only he and and wing Maurice Harkless have appeared in every game this season for the Clips. Both players have been important to the Clippers but they could and should be looking to upgrade those spots in my opinion. Landry Shamet hasn't quite provided the shooting punch they expected heading into the season, but after an injury plagued first half, perhaps he'll find his way in the second half. The Clippers should resolve to add another big wing or center to increase their ability to match up with the Lakers in the playoffs. Can they find someone with the size to make things a little more difficult for Anthony Davis? If they can, they should!

Los Angeles Lakers - In Anthony Davis and Lebron James the Lakers have two of the top handful of players in the league, and the pairing has already looked like one of the most dominant duos in league history. Aside from a brief four game skid in mid December, the Lakers have looked like the class of the league this year, ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating. As long as their two studs remain healthy, there is no doubt they will be a problem in the playoffs. That said, there is still questions surrounding the supporting cast for the Lakers. Can players like Javale McGee, Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Kyle Kuzma and Avery Bradley be relied upon in game's biggest moments. Center's McGee and Howard have both experienced a career resurgence, flushing lobs on the back end of LeBron James' pick and rolls. Having to do a little less heavy lifting on offense has LeBron exerting himself on defense with more vigor than we've seen in recent years, and he's the front runner for MVP at this point in the season. Kuzma seems to be the expendable piece here, while Rondo is still a passable guard versus back up units. I would resolve to move Kuzma in exchange for a guard who can help the Lakers space the floor and knock down open 3's with consistency in the playoffs. The Kuzma for Sacramento's Bogdanovic seems like a great fit for the Lakers shooter needs, all this talk that the Lakers lose that trade is hogwash and suggests Kuzma is overrated based on his big market profile.

Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzles are going about their rebuilding project the right way. The team is young and exciting but still very much inexperienced. After an improbable six game win streak, coupled with the stumbles of a few perennial playoff contenders, the Grizzlies sit in the 8th seed in the west currently. They still have a losing record, so this is as much an indictment of the West playoff race, as it is a glowing report of the Grizz. That said, Grizz making the playoffs would be one of the biggest surprises in the sport. I still don't know who Taylor Jenkins is, but he's doing a hell of a job!  Ja Morant has looked like the franchise cornerstone they were hoping he'd be when they drafted him 2nd overall. His combination of competitiveness, athleticism and play making is the biggest reason the future looks bright in Memphis. He is the runaway choice for ROY this season, and you can already take that to the bank. Morant plays with an unbridled joy and competitiveness that makes the Grizzlies a compelling watch on a nightly basis (it's true!) Young bigs, Jaron Jackson and Brandon Clarke are still a work in progress but the potential upside has to have Memphis fans trusting the process in 2020 and on! Jonas Valanciunas continues to be a force on the low block, allowing for a great big man rotation and allowing the young bigs to develop at at a steady but, 'no rush' pace. The team must decide if Dillon Brooks is a guy they want to keep around as they continue to build into the contender they hope to become. He has played a ton of minutes for them this year and averaged nearly 15 points a game. But he'll be looking to get paid much more handsomely next time around and I'm not so sure he's the efficient scorer they are looking to pair up with Ja throughout the next decade. He still has one more cheap year left on his deal, but if there is a team looking for wing depth and shooting, the Grizz might be selling high at the right time.


Minnesota Timberwolves - Unlike Memphis, where time is still on their side, the Minnesota Timberwolves have to have begun wondering, "is it ever going to happen?" Both for their team, and for the once first overall pick, Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins continues to be the keystone for the direction of the Timberwolves. Both he and the Wolves started the season strong, it was clear he was avoiding settling for the mid range jumper and sticking to 3's and rim attacks. Wiggins was getting to the line and even creating opportunities for teammates. This led to a move to the bench for Jeff Teague as they tried Wiggins out as the primary play maker. This move proved a failure and Wiggins quickly wore down, and hasn't been the same explosive player he was to start the season. Karl Anthony Towns is still the face of the franchise, but he needs help to support his limitations on the defensive end. Wiggins hasn't developed into the elite defensive wing, his athleticism portended. With Towns out of late, Dieng's defensive ability has really stood out, shining a spotlight on the difference between the Wolves with a defensive big, and an offensive one. The stats have been pretty revealing, Town's defensive limitations have become a narrative and people have questioned his outright superstar status. He's not the only dominant offensive player with defensive deficiencies, just the latest. So with Covington being thrown around as the T'Wolves best trade chip, I'd be looking to hold onto him as he will be essential to building around Towns. I'd resolve to move on from Wiggins, and get whatever I can before his value decreases anymore than it already has.

New Orleans Pelicans - It's been a mixed bag for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2019, on one hand it was supremely disappointing for the team to have been without number one overall pick, Zion Williamson to this point in the season. That said, the silver lining has to have been the emergence of Brandon Ingram as an elite future talent. With Zion out, Ingram has had the chance to be the number one option on offense, and he's proven himself able to carry that load. That has to encouraging after it seemed that Ingram took a step back playing alongside Lebron in Los Angeles last season. Zion appears ready to return soon, so we'll soon see how that pairing plays out. The Pels still have a talented roster with Holiday, Lonzo and Favors in the mix. Will Favors come off the bench or will he remain a starter when Zion returns. A front line of Ingram, Zion and Favors may appear imposing but it raises questions about the spacing on the offensive end, and about the ability to keep up with small line ups  in transition. I'd resolve to pair Lonzo and Favors off the bench to give the bench a strong pick and roll duo to carry the 2nd and early 4th quarters. Seeing what I have in a Zion, Ingram and Jrue core that can be built around for year's to come!


Oklahoma City Thunder - The Oklahoma City Thunder have managed to pull off one on the more difficult feats in the modern NBA. Set themselves up for a great future with draft picks (Paul George trade) and future based assets (SGA), while at the same time remaining relevant and competitive in the now. Following the departure of Paul George and the franchise's first son, Russell Westbrook, it seemed the Thunder were destined for a rebuild season in 2019-20. Not so fast, Chris Paul has actually been an upgrade over Russell Westbrook, getting more out of his teammates than Russ ever did. With quality pros like Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari and Shae Gilgeous Alexander alongside point wizard Chris Paul, we probably shouldn't we all that surprised. This has put the Thunder in a bit of dilemma. Do they stay the course and see if they can hold onto a playoff seed in the West, or do they cash in on players like Paul and Gallinari in the trade deadline market.  Under the assumption that SGA and draft picks timeline doesn't match up with the timeline of their aging vets, some would say to make a move. But I think the Thunder should resolve to stay the course, unless something presents itself that is a no-brainer. It was thought they'd be a low leverage seller, but I think this actually strengthens their leverage, as it's not a necessary move given their play and the prospect of adding a few pieces to an already established group of vets and the chance of making a run in the near future.

Phoenix Suns - Welcome to the NBA, Phoenix Suns! The Suns finally look like a team with a semblance of a plan and a roster full of competent professional players! For most teams this wouldn't even be worth noting, but this isn't most teams, it's the Suns. A perennial bottom dweller since the days of Steve Nash's departure back at the end of the previous decade. Ricky Rubio has teamed up with franchise cornerstone Devin Booker to provide the Suns with leadership, organization and direction on the offensive end of the floor. Booker has been an elite finisher, he's high volume but his FG% (nearly 50% on 2's) is worth noting! Kelly Oubre has been an exciting acquisition on the wing, continuing to develop into an above average player. Ayton has been a bit disappointing compared to the studs of his draft class, but he's still got star potential in him. Baynes and Saric have provided meaningful minutes up front throughout the season. The Suns are a competitive team on a nightly basis as a result, that has to be a win when it comes to culture change! The Suns should resolve to get their bench some more minutes down the stretch to see what they've got in players like Cameron Johnson, Mikal Bridges and Elie Okobo. Baynes is a nice insurance policy for Ayton, but he is a lot older than I would have guessed, 33. He might also be a piece for a contender like the Clippers. Speaking of age, somehow Rubio is still under 30, which I also found shocking!


Image result for cj mccollum damian lillard time to splitPortland Trailblazers - The Blazers have been one of the disappointments of the 19-20 season thus far. After a 3rd place finish in the West last season, coupled with a 1st round series win in the playoffs, hopes were high heading into this season. Those hopes were dashed pretty early on as the Blazers got off to a 5-12 start, and haven't really been able to right the ship since. Some is the result of other West teams being on the rise, other factors include injuries to Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins . With the Blazers in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Is it time to think about breaking up the elite guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCallum? Whiteside has been better than they could have hoped for, especially given setbacks to Nurkic and Zach Collins missing almost the whole season to an early season injury. Whiteside has shouldered a load, but he  is on an expiring contract and is unlikely to be back next season regardless. Has he maybe played his way into mercenary status for a contender? It'll be hard to match his contract in a trade, but maybe there's a market out there for him. I've never liked the two small-ish guard pairing of Dame and CJ as a high ceiling duo, I think their strengths are too redundant. I would resolve to move on from CJ and look to find an elite wing forward in return.

Sacramento Kings - All has returned to normal in the world of the Sacramento Kings in 2019-20. Perhaps the Kings were content and complacent with the best version of themselves from last season. This season has served as a reminder that it is very difficult to be a good team in this league, particularly when other teams are expecting you to be good. While the upstart Kings may have been able to sneak up on some people last season, that hasn't been the case so far in the current season. Injuries have certainly played a significant role, lottery picks De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley have both missed significant time. Bagley has only appeared in a dozen or so games for the Kings this year and has never looked like the stud they thought they drafted a year ago. Fox has been a microcosm of the King's themselves, his speed isn't catching anyone off guard in the same way it did last season. There's more tape on him and the league continues to adjust and scout out the edges players previously seemed to thrive on. The Dwayne Dedmon pick up (which I was high on) never seemed to work out. Though I felt they pulled the plug on that a tad early. If I was a contender I might consider a low ball offer to add some front court depth from the once promising San Antonio big. Instead it's been Richaun Holmes up front who has been one of the lone bright spots for a team that looked to be on the upswing heading into the season. With Holmes going down to a shoulder injury earlier this week, the focus for the Kings has to be getting Marvin Bagley all the touches up front that he can handle in the hopes that they can get him back on the star track that he appeared to be destined for at various points last season.

Image result for dejounte murray derrick whiteSan Antonio Spurs - Is this it for the San Antonio Spurs? It's been another difficult year for the Spurs as the once institutional franchise seems to have lost it's year in year out defensive pedigree of the Popovich team's of yesteryear. The Spurs have been one of the leagues worst defensive teams and have sunk to the bottom third of the league in many defensive statistics. DeRozen and Aldridge are both nice players, but they are certainly more cut out to be a competitive team's second or third best option. Neither is a bonafide walking bucket at this point in their careers. DeRozen can still give you the points but his play making skills seem to have tailed off since his peak years in Toronto. Aldridge appears to be extending his career nicely by adding three point range to his vast array of shot-making skills. The challenge for San Antonio will be to figure out what to do about their guard play. Dejounte Murray looked primed for a breakout year last season and then went down with an early injury.  He still hasn't yet looked like his old athletic self this season unfortunately. Derrick White has also shown flashes of potential, but neither has stepped up and taken the role over. Can the Spurs afford to play both at the same time? It would improve their defense for sure, but neither has shown a consistent ability to make shots from distance and open of the floor for teammates. Potential is a tricky term, at what point should the Spurs look to move one of there athletic guards before their value is gone? (i.e. Dante Exum) That has to be the focus for 2020.

Utah Jazz - After a tough schedule to start the season, the Jazz seem to have found their groove, winning 10 straight before falling to the Pelicans in overtime last night. This hot streak vaulted them into 2nd place in the top heavy Western conference. Interestingly, the Jazz have perhaps been at their best without their big free agent acquisition, veteran guard Mike Conley. How will they do when he returns and needs to be re-acclimated into the offence. Speaking of free agent acquisitions, Bojan Bogdanovic has been stellar this season for the Jazz giving them a true floor stretcher with his ability to knock down the 3. In addition to being an offensive threat from most anywhere on the court, his defense has been better than lot of people may have expected. Bojan's stellar play with the first unit,  has also freed up Joe Ingles to move to the bench mob. Ingles gives their second unit a play maker to to take over pick and roll duties when Mitchell needs a rest. Rudy Gobert continues to be the heart and soul of one of the better defensive units in the league. Gobert anchors the defense and prevents rim looks from even being attempted on many possessions. The Jazz should resolve to figure out the Conley conundrum sooner, rather than later. Conley is a great player and surely they'll be better with him in the mix, but just how that will look is still very much a question that needs to be answered!

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