Hard to believe after so few short months, but the 2012 sprint edition of an NBA regular season has already rushed to a furious finish, playoff seedings coming down to the final few games. With no rest for the weary, the NBA season continues to march on towards it's championship culmination. As fans, let's catch our breathe as we recapitulate the season that was, and take a look at the happenings from the 1st round that have shifted the playoff landscape in a major way.
What's not so hard to believe is that the Knicks have already began casting their fishing lines and working on their short games. After what could only be described as a tumultuous season, the Knicks 2012 campaign culminated in a disappointing 5 game thumping at the hands of the Miami Heat. Amare was his usual self, dashing the teams hopes with yet another mindless display of incompetence. It's unfortunate he does not attack the defensive end with that same sort unbridled intensity. Instead of working hard (i.e. making his opponent work for position/ pushing Bosh off the block, closing out and running Miami's shooters off the 3 point line, or chasing rebounds) he just gets mad and starts punching things. I guess he wanted to put himself in the shoes of the fans, perhaps? Anyway I've had enough of Stoudemire, he can't play defense, his explosion has been robbed by his repeated surgeries and his contract is suffocating enough for fans to talk about, much less for management to work around. I hope he's not back in the fall because I think the Knicks have something in Melo at the 4, Chandler at the 5, Fields at the 3, Shumpert at the 2 and a healthy Lin at the point. Losing Shumpert in round one hurt far more than losing Amare. Shumpert represented one of the Knicks only perimeter defenders, an a great foil for DWade's isolation theatrics.
Regardless the Knicks weren't winning that series, they need to add depth in the form of another big, add another athletic attacking swing and it looks like they'll need a backup at the point after Baron Davis' knee called it a career for Baron in Game 4. So I say we float Amare and his big fat contract out there (5Y/100M) and see what we can get for him. Unfortunately we used the amnesty clause on Chauncey Billups already, because with 5 years left on Stoudemire's 100M, it's looking like this might not end well for Amare in the Big Apple.
All that being said, the Knicks were more relevant in 2012 than they have been in years, I take small solace in that. Post script part 2: Phil Jackson wants to coach? I know Woodson did a hell of a job, but the best coach ever is available and were not even gonna lend an ear? Fukoutaher.
2012 Regular Season: The Recap.
Questions or Answers?
Typically we see the regular season as the judgement ground of a team's character, a barometer of things to come. Traditionally considered to be a marathon and not a sprint, this year's regular season was anything but a traditional one. Getting a late start on the 2012 season as a result of the silly lockout dust up that took place during the off season, this NBA season was much more of the short track variety. Because of this, I found it tough to get a real sense of the leagues heartbeat, with so much transpiring over such a relatively short period of time. (This point becomes emphasized when I get to discussing the Knicks tumultuous 2012 season.) All that being said, I began the season with an idea of they way I thought the season would play out and I'd have to say that while in some ways my assumptions have come to fruition, in other ways it's been a very strange season.
Debunking the Youth Theory?
Many experts and pundits were quick to emphasize the advantage the younger teams (Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Indiana,) would have over the aging rosters (Boston, San Antonio, Dallas, LA Lakers) due to the condensed schedule and necessity to play so many back to backs. While I think to some degree the experts prognosis held some weight, in other regards it was way off the mark. I think they undervalued the importance of having a great coach and IMHO Popovich, Rivers, and Carlisle are amongst the leagues best, ( A combined 6 Rings and 4 Coach of the Year Awards serve to back my claim.) So while the depth and youth of the Pacers is the feather in the experts cap; the wilting Sixers and the indefatigable, seemingly indestructible San Antonio Spurs, with the leagues best record, certainly debunked the theory that youth would outright trump experience in the shortened season. A laugh when you consider that Pop outright sat his aging stars at times throughout the season to offset the effects of the rigorously demanding schedule. Chew on that while you also consider Boston's meteoric rise in the second half, proving they still had plenty of juice left in the tank and that early assumptions of their demise were indeed premature. (Though I think they may have peaked and hit their stride a bit too soon.) So while OKC is admittedly young and very good, the trio of Harden, Durant and Westbrook already has a Western Conference Finals birth under their belt and should not be seen as an overachieving second seed as a result of it's youthful advantage, this is just a very good team, age be damned. All of this said I think San Antonio has to be the surprise of the regular season, a team that has become annually written off because of their aging core, yet possesses a serious threat to challenge for the NBA's title, count them out at your own peril.
The Empire State:
What else can I say about the New York Knicks season that hasn't already been explored ad-naseum. (Or stated above already concerning their playoff collapse.) The most over exposed, overrated 7th seed in recent memory, the season in Gotham city was anything but mundane. While most teams will exit with a squad resembling the one they started with, Madison Square has seen more facelifts than Hollywood Boulevard in 2012. ( Incidentally, team and venue.)
With initial high hopes dashed almost instantly after starting 8-15 the terminally ill corpse of the Knicks saw it's season hovering on life support (Exit Melo and Amare), when out of no where the squad receives the equivalent a heart transplant (Jeremy Lin), only to have the body reject the transplant, (Melo and Amare's return) because the doctor seemingly had misplaced the pieces during the operation, (D'antoni) only to have a new physician (Woodson) come in and properly sort the organs (players) into a working whole. Follow that? Anyway long story short, it's been a dicey season in New York and while the team has shown itself to be resilient under Woodson, they're still a tier below the elite of the league and their rough start to the season left them with nothing more than a 7th seed and an anticipated early dismissal at the hands of LeBron James and the Miami Heat.
Cause: Too Many Games in Too Little Time Effect: Injuries and Sloppy Play
I'm here to tell you that a lot of people got banged up in 2012. I guess you would have to go delving much further with in-depth research from multiple seasons prior to find out if this season truly has been an anomaly as far as the number of players who were knocked out of play during the season, but just off the cuff, I think this was one of the major by-products of the condensed schedule. A combination of some players arrival lacking the proper condition, the rigorous schedule that featured as many as 4 games in 5 nights coupled with a lack of recovery time and it seemed this season was even more decimated by injuries than any season of recent memory. Despite playing 16 fewer games than usual the number of players carted off seemed to be unusually high. There is no question that the quality of play also suffered at times with players entering the season out of shape, lacking practice time and so many quality players going down. Leaving teams to plug unpracticed and less experienced players in their stead. To this point I'm pretty sure the Raptors squad looked more like a NBDL roster by the season's end, but that might have been part of the recent tanking strategy that has plagued the NBA in recent seasons. Overall, it was an exciting season if not unpredictable and wrought with injuries.
Annual Regular Season Hardware Distribution: These Aren't Even Guesses At Won Will Take The Award Per say, More So Just Who I'd Have Voted For To Win The Award
Most Valuable Player: Lebron James - LeBron wins a two-horse race here with Durant (apologies to T. Parker and Chris Paul) as both were deserving but LeBron had to do a little heavier lifting with DWade missing so much time and the Heat relying on the King to be Mr. Do It All. Guarding and playing nearly all positions at some point in time or another. Best player on planet earth.
Rookie Of The Year: Kyrie Irving - A no-brainer here as Kyrie put a very week Cav roster on his back and led the squad to some surprising results. The loss of Rubio to injury makes this one a no-doubter. Top 5 Rookies of 2012 in order: Irving, Ricky Rubio, Kenneth Faried, Iman Shumpert, Isaiah Thomas
Defensive Player Of The Year: Tyson Chandler - Yeah I'm a homer and yeah Serge Ibaka led the league in blocks but he gets to play with Perkins (+defender), Sefolosha (defensive perimeter stopper +defender), Westbrook (drafted for his defense, +defender), and Durant (+defender) around him, that's all he has to think about! Chandler has Amare, Bibby, Novak, Melo, J.R. Smith and Baron Davis around him, with only Shumpert and Fields being reliable defenders. Chandler continues to change the Knicks culture on D the way he did in Dallas, much like the way KG changed things in Boston.
Coach Of The Year: Greg Popovich - Should probably just make this an annual thing, yet Pop has only won it once before. No one can honestly tell me they thought the Spurs were the best team in the L heading into the season, no one is saying that still, yet Pop keeps the Spurs rolling. Plug n' play.
6th Man of the Year: James Harden - Another no-doubt selection here, Harden is the secret weapon of the OKC Thunder feasting on weak second units throughout the league in the 2nd Q, before filling up tired and worn starters in the 4th Q. Harden gives the Thunder that third scoring option and is a table guy in ever other way in that he brings lots to the table without taking anything away. Guy can pass, handle, rebound and defend at above average levels for his position. In line for a pay day real soon.
Most Improved Player: Ersan Ilyasova - Guy kept Milwaukee in the playoff race in the East, stepping up big for the Bucks (I hope for his financial sake that becomes a pun) when Andrew Bogut went out to injury. Naysayers be warned, I'm not cool with giving it to Ryan Anderson, who was great last year for the final few months the season. (I had him in fantasy, he was improved last year.) Marcin Gortat can't win because we all know it's the Steve Nash effect. Hmm Jeremy Lin?
All NBA First Team
G Chris Paul
G Tony Parker
F LeBron James
F Kevin Durant
C Dwight Howard Aka Coach Killer
All NBA Second Team
G Kobe Bryant
G Dwanye Wade
F Kevin Love
F Carmelo Anthony
C Andrew Bynum
All NBA Third Team
G Steve Nash
G Paul Pierce (I cheated and made Paul Pierce a guard because I like him here more than Deron Williams or Ty Lawson)
F Josh Smith
F LaMarcus Alderidge
C Al Jefferson
All Defensive Team
G Iman Shumpert
G Tony Allen
F Serge Ibaka
F LeBron James
C Tyson Chandler
Honourable mention: Avery Bradley
On to the question we're all asking....
Who will still be playing in June?
2nd Round and beyond Playoff Preview:
Unlike the Regular Season which I've argued above presented us with more questions than answers, conversely the first round of the playoffs provided us with plenty of meaningful information. Championship aspirations and anterior cruciate ligaments were just a few of the major stories from round 1, as both were popped at the same time for the Chicago Bulls when Derrick Rose was lost for the rest of 2012. In a season riddled with injury for the returning MVP, he was never able to reestablish himself as the dynamic force that shook the league a year ago and made the Bulls a preseason championship favourite. All told, injuries have cast a looming shadow over the playoffs thus far with Dwight Howard's absence in Orlando, the loss of several Knick guards, Derrick Rose' injury, and now Bosh too may be out for the foreseeable future. With the loss of Rose it seemed that the East would be Miami's for the taking, but the loss of Bosh in their game one victory over the Pacers might see that series play a little tighter than initially expected.
For the most part round one played out as expected, top seeds the Heat, Spurs, and Thunder all rolled quite easily, the Bulls lost but it was hardly the upset it would have been if they hadn't lost Rose so early on in the process.
Here are my Round 1 match-up rankings the Round 1.
Listed in Order of Greatest to Shit.
Great Match-up
Clippers v. Grizzlies - By far the best match-up of the first round. Clips prevail in 7, further supporting the case that the team with the best player (Paul) and finisher (again, Paul) will come out on top.
Great Match-up
Lakers v. Nuggets - This series turned quite exciting as the upstart Nuggets continued to prove themselves as a team that is greater than the sum of it's parts. The Lakers continual dysfunction will ultimately prove to be their undoing.
Good, Yet Partially Played Out Because You Always Knew What Was Going To Happen And How It Was Going To End, Yet You Continued To Watch For Self Confirmation and Affirmation, Match-up
Celtics v. Hawks - In what has seems to have become an annual match-up the Celtics continued their dominance over a stale Hawks squad that seems to have run it's course. It wasn't until Al Horford returned in Gm 3 that the Hawks even appeared to regain some sense of energy and losing to a depleted Boston squad (Suspended Rondo, injured Shuttlesworth and a Hurting KG). Somewhat good, yet overally predictable as the Hawks have never shown any ounce of the mental fortitude necessary to win a series like this.
Just Fair Match-up
Sixers v. Bulls - Following a season of over achieving and over coming injury, the battered Bulls finally came down to earth in what amounted to a defensive battle with the Sixers in which games in the 70's were the norm and the play became unwatchable at times. If I called it unwatchable at times... it can't be better than just fair, I'm not convinced that it was only good D that had the shooting percentages so low in this series, bad shooters? DRose get well soon.
Just Fair Matchup
Thunder v. Mavs - The Mavs seemed to be disheartened after a pair of tough road losses to open the series left them deflated when it came time to defend their title back in Dallas. As good as a series an be considering the sweep, but no sweep can be more than just fair. Expect a shake up in big D this summer.
Most Disappointing Matchup - AKA Shit Match Up #1
Heat v. Knicks - Blah. Some marquee matchup this was. The Heat did what they we're supposed to do and the Knicks pretty much let them, pretty disappointing as a Knicks fan to type this but that pales in comparison to how disappointing it was to watch.
Most One-Sided Matchup - AKA Shit Match-Up #2
Spurs v. Jazz - Yawn. Someone should have told the Jazz that the playoffs had started. Only one team showed up here. Even Al Jefferson had conceded defeat before the 4th game. I don't blame the Jazz, all credit due for the Spurs.
ZZZZZ's Match-Up - AKA Shit Matchup #3
Magic v. Pacers- After digging deep and accomplishing an incomparable comeback in game 1 the Magic proved themselves to be more than just a bunch of Dwight Howard's teammates, that accomplished, they promptly went on vacation dropping 4 straight.
East
Boston Celtics (4) v. Philadelphia 76'ers (8)
The Celtics have to be the prohibitive favourite here as the 76'ers backed into the playoffs and appeared hardly deserving of an invitation to the dance. That said despite getting getting lucky in round 1 with the banged up Bulls, the Sixers appear to have recaptured the style of play that had people talking about them as an upstart squad back in January. But let's get serious, the Celts still have the 3 best players in this series (Rondo, Garnett, Pierce) and the best shooter (Allen). A combination of their experience and cagey talents will lead them past a well coached defensive Sixer squad, who will struggle to put up enough points to win themselves 4 games. Celtics in 6 hard fought games that will have people fearing the Sixers heading into next year. People's fears will remain irrelevant.
Miami Heat (2) v. Indiana Pacers (3)
Let's start by saying this series will be closer than many people expect. While the Heat remain the team to beat in the East, the loss of Bosh, and subsequently a big part of their size and depth as a result, has me thinking this won't be the cakewalk that many expect. The up and coming Pacers will have the size with David West and Roy Hibbert to give the Heat some problems in the paint. That said, the Heat still have the best players in the series and despite their perceived late game flaws, I still think they have a better collection of finishers to turn too. As much as I don't trust Lebron at the end of games, I really don't trust Danny Granger. One point of intrigue will be the wear and tear on LeBron and DWade as the loss of Bosh certainly means both will be relied upon to pick up the slack, both offensively and on the defensive end where LeBron will have to slide down and cover David West inside at times. That extra banging could burn the seemingly indestructible Lebron out if this goes 7, which I predict it will. True or false? If you put Lebron at any position, he is the best player in the league at that position? Arguably true of all positions, except maybe center and there might even be a debate at that position by the end of this series. Heat in 7.
West
San Antonio Spurs (1) v. Los Angeles Clippers (5)
This should be a helluva series for the fans. Both of these teams play an up and down style and both of these teams can put points on the board in bunches. Both teams have studs, bigs and some scoring off the bench. (Edge: Spurs) Both of these teams have players who can isolate and finish at the end of clocks/games. (Slight Edge: Clips) So it should be close, no? I'm not really convinced because while all of those things are pretty equal the Spurs still have Popovich calling the shots and in that regard I give them an incalculable tactical edge when it comes to game plan and adjustments. In addition the Spurs have had some time off and should be well rested for a Clippers team that just completed a hard fought 7 game series with the Clippers. That said the Clips do have Chris Paul, who tops my list of finishers in the series and should give the Clips the edge at the end of games with his ability to make things happen, both for himself and teammates, provided they're still hanging around at the end of games. More often than not, they won't be. Spurs in 6.
Oklahoma City Thunder (2) v. Los Angeles Lakers (3)
Those still living in 2010 will bill this as a series pitting the size, experience, and half court execution of the Lakers against the youth, speed and transition offense of the Thunder. Except this is 2012 and this ain't your older brother's Thunder, err, Sonics. The Thunder made the Western Conference finals last season and can hardly be regarded as a bunch of spring chickens. Not to mention calling the Lakers experienced is really a kind euphemism for saying they're old. The Thunder while being lethal in transition and having some speed to burn, aren't exactly small like the Heat, Ibaka is a beast with both size and strength and Perkins should provide enough size up front to contest Gasol or Bynum without needing much help from a double. To conclude, Thunder are big and fast. Leaving execution as the Lakers only hope; slow the tempo, dump it down low and then knock down open shots or go to work on the block, time after time and then some. The Thunder can turn the ball over at times, and are prone to settling for jump shots in the half court at times, allowing the Lakers to put the tempo in their favour. If the Thunder can keep the pace moving and if the Lakers can't hit their open shots (Something they struggled mightily with against the Nuggets) this one will be over quick. And that's not even discussing the Westbrook matchup, which will no doubt give the Lake Show fits as they struggled containing Ty Lawson in round 1. All told, I think I just convinced myself that the Thunder are going to win this one quite easily. Thunder in 5 and the end of the Gasol-Kobe era in LA.
I leave you with this. Funny as it may be I'm past the LeBron hate, I hope the Heat do well and that we can begin to appreciate him for the all-world talent rather than needle his short comings. That remains on him. I wish him well but guy's gotta win if he wishes to save his soul.
